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Prediction for CME (2025-08-04T06:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-08-04T06:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40377/-1
CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the NE in STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-08-04T06:38Z, as well as to the NW by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is a double peaked M2.0 and M1.4 from Active Region 14168 (N05E12) which peaked at 04/04:52Z and 04/05:05Z respectively. This flare is visible in SDO AIA 131, along with dimming and field line movement seen in SDO AIA 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. This CME may have been deflected towards the Northwest, as this Active Region is situation to the Northwest of a large coronal hole.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-08-07T04:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/40379/1
Model Inputs:
2025-08-04T06:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=10.0, Lat.=22.0, Speed=567.0, HalfAngle=11.0, Time21.5=2025-08-04T12:00Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-08-07T04:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-05T08:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-07T00:00Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-06T06:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250804_120000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250804_120000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250804_120000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250804_120000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250804_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250804_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250804_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250804_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250804_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250804_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250804_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250804_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250804_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250804_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250804_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 54.83 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-08-04T21:10Z

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